{"id":15586,"date":"2026-05-20T10:10:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T03:10:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/taichinhphowall.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/20\/tang-lai-suat-fed-va-ap-luc-tu-thi-truong-trai-phieu\/"},"modified":"2026-05-20T10:10:19","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T03:10:19","slug":"tang-lai-suat-fed-va-ap-luc-tu-thi-truong-trai-phieu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/taichinhphowall.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/20\/tang-lai-suat-fed-va-ap-luc-tu-thi-truong-trai-phieu\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t Fed v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

T\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t Fed \u0111ang tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00fa \u00fd khi nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ph\u1ea3i c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc l\u1ea1i l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. Chuy\u00ean gia t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Ed Yardeni g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u00e2n Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Kevin Warsh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong th\u00e1ng 7 \u0111\u1ec3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp l\u1ea1i uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. S\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c “bond vigilantes” \u2013 nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng b\u00e1n th\u00e1o khi ni\u1ec1m tin v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch b\u1ecb lung lay \u2013 \u0111ang \u0111\u1eb7t ra m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ecf cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u FED trong vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi chi ph\u00ed vay v\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n

\n \"T\u0103ng
\u1ea2nh t\u1eeb ngu\u1ed3n: cnbc.com<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

S\u1ee9c \u00e9p t\u1eeb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu l\u00ean quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t Fed<\/h2>\n

Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t ngh\u1ecbch l\u00fd l\u00e0 trong khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc quan \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 c\u00f3 ph\u1ea7n “b\u1ed3 c\u00e2u” (dovish) c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng Warsh, th\u00ec l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 30 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ed1c 5%, m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong g\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t n\u0103m tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 n\u01a1i giao d\u1ecbch c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u1ee3 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o ni\u1ec1m tin \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. Khi gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng FED ph\u1ea3i th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t thay v\u00ec n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean vai t\u00e2n Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch FED c\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 h\u01a1n bao gi\u1edd h\u1ebft. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a trong d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, khi m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ebfn x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m nay, tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a l\u1ea1i vai tr\u00f2 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t<\/h2>\n

\u0110\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd, vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean b\u00e0n c\u1edd t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft s\u00e1ch d\u1ee9t kho\u00e1t. Theo Yardeni, \u0111\u1ec3 xoa d\u1ecbu l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i t\u1eeb c\u00e1c “bond vigilantes”, FED c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea7n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i mang t\u00ednh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ngay t\u1ea1i cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 6: lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf c\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch (forward guidance) h\u00e0m \u00fd v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. \u0110\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh m\u00e0 l\u00e0 th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 ki\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh trong vi\u1ec7c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. N\u1ebfu FED kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ee7 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng theo c\u00e1ch l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, t\u1ea1o n\u00ean v\u00f2ng xo\u00e1y kh\u00f3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ef1c. Xem th\u00eam v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn xoay quanh t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t Fed v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u1eeb gi\u1edbi giao d\u1ecbch<\/a> \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed7i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a c\u01a1 quan n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

T\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t Fed nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp l\u1ea1i tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1<\/h3>\n

Gi\u1edbi chuy\u00ean gia nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn (hawkish) t\u1eeb \u00f4ng Warsh ngay trong th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ea7u nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mang l\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u01b0u ti\u00ean \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, FED c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nguy c\u01a1 m\u1ea5t ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi chi ph\u00ed vay v\u1ed1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y v\u00f4 h\u00ecnh trung t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft cho c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ti\u1ebfp theo. Khi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf, c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed vay th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p v\u00e0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t, mang l\u1ea1i t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cho m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng kinh t\u1ebf r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n. Nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 minh ch\u1ee9ng cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 m\u1eadt thi\u1ebft gi\u1eefa ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd trong giao d\u1ecbch ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ng\u00e0y 19\/05<\/a> m\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n theo s\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Trong khi s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn chung c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong th\u00e1ng 7, nh\u1eefng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1eeb gi\u1edbi quan s\u00e1t nh\u01b0 Yardeni v\u1eabn gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 n\u1eb1m \u1edf con s\u1ed1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u00e0 quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111i\u1ec7u gi\u1eefa t\u01b0 duy c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 v\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1ee3. S\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng mong manh n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u00e0 b\u00e0i ki\u1ec3m tra \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u00e0 quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u00e2n Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Kevin Warsh trong s\u1ee9 m\u1ec7nh d\u1eabn d\u1eaft con t\u00e0u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng c\u01a1n s\u00f3ng d\u1eef c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n

B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u00ean t\u1eadp l\u1ea1i t\u1eeb ngu\u1ed3n: cnbc.com<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t Fed \u0111ang tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00fa \u00fd khi nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ph\u1ea3i c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc l\u1ea1i l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. Chuy\u00ean gia t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Ed Yardeni g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u00e2n Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15584,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tin-tuc-fed"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/taichinhphowall.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15586","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/taichinhphowall.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/taichinhphowall.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/taichinhphowall.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/taichinhphowall.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15586"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/taichinhphowall.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15586\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/taichinhphowall.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/taichinhphowall.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15586"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/taichinhphowall.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15586"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/taichinhphowall.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15586"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}